Modeling Potential Responses to Smallpox as a Bioterrorist Weapon Appendix I: A Mathematical Review of the Transmission of Smallpox
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چکیده
The mathematical model we described requires the researcher to preset the average number of disease-susceptible persons infected by an infectious patient (i.e., the rate of transmission). To obtain historical data describing the average number of persons infected per infectious person, we examined the literature for data regarding the rate of transmission. Since there are already a number of excellent reviews of smallpox epidemiology (1-3), we reviewed and reported only papers in which transmission rate was specifically measured or sufficient data were provided for it to be calculated.
منابع مشابه
Modeling potential responses to smallpox as a bioterrorist weapon.
We constructed a mathematical model to describe the spread of smallpox after a deliberate release of the virus. Assuming 100 persons initially infected and 3 persons infected per infectious person, quarantine alone could stop disease transmission but would require a minimum daily removal rate of 50% of those with overt symptoms. Vaccination would stop the outbreak within 365 days after release ...
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